An odd story that I've been following with some interest is the Pentagon's plan to create a "Futures Market" in terrorist acts. The Pentagon has backed off, due to a firestorm of negative publicity, but I'm not sure that's a good thing. The program, "FutureMAP," was created by DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), and it would have lived under the watchful eye of the ever-popular Total Information Awareness program. The basic principal is to allow "investors" to "speculate" on acts of terrorism, based on the logic that markets are much better at individuals at predicting human behavior.
Among the names eager Senators called it were "sick," "stupid," "ridiculous," and "grotesque." Senator Boxer suggested that people responsible for coming up with the idea should be immediately fired. The program was stopped.
Two problems though. First, if you hire people to think "outside the box" and come up with radical new ideas of how to anticipate and prevent terrorist attacks, you probably shouldn't fire them for coming up with a radical new idea of how to anticipate and prevent terrorist attacks. But the much larger problem is, what if it was a really good idea, despite an instinctive "yuck" factor that a two-sentence description of the program evokes?
For some interesting insights, check out Christopher Marquis' article about The Rights and Wrongs of Thinking Outside the Box, the economic analysis of Hal Varian in A Good Idea with Bad Press, and the opinions of Op-Ed columnist Todd G. Buchholz in his piece, All Bets Are Off.
I won't argue that it was a weird idea, but I'm sad to see a potentially innovative idea get so quickly squelched because it sounds unpleasant. I would have at least liked a more thoughtful rejection than "that's sick - fire everyone."

